* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 09/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 57 66 69 69 70 68 63 59 53 51 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 57 66 69 69 70 68 63 59 53 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 44 51 56 57 53 47 40 33 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 14 11 10 6 3 6 3 12 17 25 37 37 31 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 5 9 7 7 9 8 14 10 8 7 4 12 5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 276 260 284 310 339 338 33 82 217 208 215 219 221 222 232 243 251 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 143 143 148 151 147 144 140 140 135 132 130 129 125 124 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 143 143 148 151 147 144 140 140 134 130 127 122 114 110 104 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.0 -55.0 -54.2 -54.7 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -55.0 -55.6 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 72 72 68 64 58 56 57 60 58 55 54 54 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 12 14 15 17 17 17 16 17 16 13 12 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 13 6 18 21 18 52 62 61 70 70 49 26 9 -45 -75 -79 200 MB DIV 90 145 184 174 188 203 127 52 24 31 38 64 89 49 47 15 11 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -6 -7 -8 -5 -5 -6 0 3 14 26 37 34 26 23 LAND (KM) 596 699 774 844 890 982 1091 1213 1336 1454 1634 1852 2047 2167 2267 2319 2228 LAT (DEG N) 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.8 7.5 8.4 9.6 11.0 12.7 14.6 16.8 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.9 21.0 22.0 22.8 24.4 26.0 27.6 29.2 30.8 32.7 34.7 36.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 10 9 8 9 10 10 12 13 14 16 17 17 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 17 18 26 33 23 21 14 19 22 7 12 11 7 14 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 40. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. -1. -4. -9. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 32. 41. 44. 44. 45. 43. 38. 34. 28. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 6.7 18.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 09/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 156.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.86 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 21.6% 11.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 0.0% Logistic: 12.5% 43.2% 22.4% 10.0% 3.0% 10.5% 12.9% 15.2% Bayesian: 3.4% 1.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.8% 1.8% 2.2% 0.9% Consensus: 6.9% 22.1% 12.0% 6.4% 1.2% 4.1% 11.5% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 09/28/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 40 48 57 66 69 69 70 68 63 59 53 51 47 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 36 44 53 62 65 65 66 64 59 55 49 47 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 46 55 58 58 59 57 52 48 42 40 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 36 45 48 48 49 47 42 38 32 30 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT