* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 09/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 42 47 51 53 57 63 68 74 75 77 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 42 47 51 53 57 63 68 74 75 77 75 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 28 31 35 39 45 50 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 13 12 11 12 8 5 10 8 2 2 7 10 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 1 4 6 9 9 13 11 7 5 2 5 8 9 5 SHEAR DIR 304 296 293 296 310 343 360 28 60 68 120 81 71 243 259 250 255 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 145 143 142 146 151 149 148 145 141 138 132 137 131 128 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 145 143 142 146 151 149 148 144 140 138 130 135 128 120 119 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 74 71 70 71 72 68 62 61 58 63 65 64 65 66 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 12 11 15 16 14 13 11 10 9 7 8 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 29 19 10 0 8 7 10 12 16 9 12 0 -21 -21 -4 -9 -14 200 MB DIV 87 84 118 140 155 179 155 30 -13 -17 26 46 48 55 65 59 35 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -3 -5 -6 -6 -5 -1 -3 3 1 4 5 13 16 16 LAND (KM) 447 565 649 720 768 874 974 1090 1209 1301 1402 1532 1714 1935 1997 1982 1968 LAT (DEG N) 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.8 8.5 9.5 10.6 11.7 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 16.8 18.1 19.2 20.1 20.9 22.6 24.1 25.7 27.2 28.4 29.7 31.3 33.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 20 20 17 24 36 28 24 20 13 12 13 16 12 11 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 44. 45. 46. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 4. 2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 22. 27. 31. 33. 37. 43. 48. 54. 55. 57. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 6.7 16.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 09/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 22.5% 11.8% 4.6% 1.1% 4.9% 7.3% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 1.6% 7.5% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 1.6% 2.5% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 09/28/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 34 42 47 51 53 57 63 68 74 75 77 75 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 32 40 45 49 51 55 61 66 72 73 75 73 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 28 36 41 45 47 51 57 62 68 69 71 69 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT