* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 09/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 33 42 49 54 60 68 76 82 85 87 86 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 33 42 49 54 60 68 76 82 85 87 86 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 32 37 41 48 56 62 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 14 15 19 13 13 12 7 6 8 4 5 4 7 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 7 5 4 6 3 6 5 11 9 11 5 2 6 8 5 SHEAR DIR 304 317 325 319 317 323 5 31 50 308 6 40 75 101 209 233 240 SST (C) 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 144 145 145 142 144 149 149 151 152 148 143 143 138 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 142 144 145 145 142 144 149 149 151 152 148 143 143 138 137 137 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 70 68 71 73 73 72 75 69 61 55 56 61 67 69 69 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 9 12 13 13 12 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 21 17 6 10 11 7 31 39 38 43 33 7 -8 4 18 200 MB DIV 69 72 82 88 105 128 147 107 5 -44 -17 16 63 71 60 65 29 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 0 -4 -4 -2 -1 1 1 2 5 LAND (KM) 178 350 480 581 665 792 890 978 1078 1202 1312 1417 1562 1675 1676 1708 1643 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.3 8.2 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 14.4 16.0 17.2 18.3 19.2 21.0 22.4 23.6 24.9 26.3 27.7 29.1 30.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 14 12 10 9 8 6 7 6 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 13 15 19 20 16 22 39 43 37 34 25 15 12 15 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 36. 40. 45. 46. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 13. 22. 30. 34. 40. 48. 56. 62. 65. 67. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.2 14.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 09/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 17.8% 11.3% 6.2% 1.6% 8.1% 8.6% 21.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% Consensus: 2.0% 6.1% 3.9% 2.1% 0.5% 2.8% 3.1% 7.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 09/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 21 24 33 42 49 54 60 68 76 82 85 87 86 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 23 32 41 48 53 59 67 75 81 84 86 85 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 20 29 38 45 50 56 64 72 78 81 83 82 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT