* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 08/31/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 49 59 72 87 101 109 113 110 111 108 109 108 107 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 49 59 72 87 101 109 113 110 111 108 109 108 107 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 54 68 84 98 100 95 89 89 88 85 83 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 8 10 8 12 5 8 12 13 11 12 21 22 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 6 3 1 1 -2 0 1 3 1 3 3 2 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 36 34 65 93 92 91 80 89 79 76 38 12 312 293 285 278 261 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 139 137 138 134 133 130 123 123 127 132 134 140 149 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 139 137 138 134 133 129 119 118 122 125 123 127 136 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 80 78 73 67 65 59 51 48 46 46 49 51 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 21 23 28 33 38 40 41 38 38 37 41 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 122 122 118 115 127 122 117 129 143 171 160 147 150 124 103 95 86 200 MB DIV 73 95 84 66 81 77 90 128 145 138 78 58 19 13 50 30 34 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -12 -7 -3 -9 -7 -12 -10 0 -5 0 4 9 13 4 -1 LAND (KM) 280 400 560 771 960 1360 1631 1845 1819 1727 1690 1679 1742 1778 1772 1691 1597 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 20 19 16 13 15 14 11 12 14 14 10 10 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 14 11 13 9 7 16 19 7 17 14 22 22 22 23 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 27. 28. 23. 22. 19. 21. 20. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 19. 29. 42. 57. 71. 79. 83. 80. 81. 78. 79. 78. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 18.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 08/31/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 22.6% 13.5% 8.9% 6.5% 11.0% 12.3% 24.7% Logistic: 4.6% 22.7% 8.2% 1.5% 1.2% 5.0% 7.6% 3.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 22.6% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 5.7% 2.6% 10.4% Consensus: 3.8% 22.6% 8.2% 3.6% 2.6% 7.2% 7.5% 12.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 38.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 08/31/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 42 49 59 72 87 101 109 113 110 111 108 109 108 107 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 44 54 67 82 96 104 108 105 106 103 104 103 102 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 37 47 60 75 89 97 101 98 99 96 97 96 95 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 37 50 65 79 87 91 88 89 86 87 86 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT