* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 08/31/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 46 57 68 82 93 97 102 99 97 97 95 96 94 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 46 57 68 82 93 97 102 99 97 97 95 96 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 52 65 78 87 92 89 83 78 76 75 74 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 9 15 13 16 16 8 17 11 15 17 20 20 23 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 5 3 1 -6 -3 -1 0 4 3 -5 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 49 38 65 35 47 81 64 41 45 65 62 44 360 342 313 278 241 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 136 136 139 139 138 132 130 127 126 122 120 123 126 127 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 136 136 139 139 138 132 128 122 121 116 113 113 115 117 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.8 -52.5 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 85 85 83 81 82 80 75 71 67 59 56 50 46 48 49 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 16 18 17 23 25 30 34 34 36 33 30 30 31 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 94 113 112 110 125 117 119 136 136 130 143 129 102 82 68 57 45 200 MB DIV 53 83 87 84 88 84 65 114 135 135 60 21 4 20 19 63 0 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -3 -10 -7 0 -6 -10 -8 -6 0 0 0 -3 6 12 8 LAND (KM) 290 347 417 542 685 1015 1385 1664 1834 1889 1837 1846 1955 2028 2115 2280 2340 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 16.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 15 15 16 17 16 13 11 10 10 12 12 10 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 13 13 11 15 8 7 13 14 17 7 6 15 7 7 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 5. 8. 15. 20. 20. 22. 17. 12. 12. 11. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 27. 38. 52. 63. 67. 72. 69. 67. 67. 65. 66. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 16.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 08/31/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.8% 10.4% 8.1% 5.8% 10.1% 11.4% 16.3% Logistic: 4.9% 29.0% 11.0% 2.1% 2.1% 6.5% 11.5% 14.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 3.8% 23.4% Consensus: 3.6% 17.1% 7.5% 3.4% 2.6% 5.8% 8.9% 17.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 08/31/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 46 57 68 82 93 97 102 99 97 97 95 96 94 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 41 52 63 77 88 92 97 94 92 92 90 91 89 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 34 45 56 70 81 85 90 87 85 85 83 84 82 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 34 45 59 70 74 79 76 74 74 72 73 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT