* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 08/31/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 49 59 69 75 79 82 83 82 80 79 78 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 49 59 69 75 79 82 83 82 80 79 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 38 43 49 58 68 74 76 74 68 61 56 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 10 6 11 16 3 5 2 1 6 13 21 22 26 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 3 2 0 1 -2 0 1 6 0 3 6 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 53 63 47 52 49 93 79 54 74 266 44 315 284 277 278 292 303 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.9 25.9 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 132 136 136 141 135 132 126 123 115 113 111 113 112 113 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 132 136 136 141 135 131 121 117 108 106 102 102 99 99 96 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 84 86 85 84 82 82 78 76 69 62 57 52 44 44 44 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 96 100 89 98 117 121 134 150 128 137 103 71 26 17 19 17 200 MB DIV 58 60 61 66 96 74 124 127 148 154 72 0 -4 0 6 23 24 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -2 -7 1 -10 -9 -5 -5 -2 0 10 22 15 6 -9 LAND (KM) 284 351 372 407 501 754 1002 1263 1478 1654 1755 1834 1835 1851 1837 1781 1653 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 9.3 9.9 10.6 11.9 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.9 16.6 18.8 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 16.3 17.5 18.5 19.7 21.1 23.8 26.5 29.1 31.2 32.9 33.8 34.4 34.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 14 15 14 14 13 9 10 10 12 12 10 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 9 13 13 11 10 10 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 10. 10. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 24. 34. 44. 50. 54. 57. 58. 57. 55. 54. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 16.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 08/31/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.7% 9.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 22.4% 8.1% 1.2% 1.0% 4.5% 11.4% 13.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 11.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 2.3% 13.8% Consensus: 3.5% 16.4% 6.5% 2.9% 0.4% 1.9% 8.2% 9.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 08/31/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 42 49 59 69 75 79 82 83 82 80 79 78 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 38 45 55 65 71 75 78 79 78 76 75 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 39 49 59 65 69 72 73 72 70 69 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 40 50 56 60 63 64 63 61 60 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT