* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 08/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 46 58 65 76 83 92 93 93 88 84 82 80 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 46 58 65 76 83 92 93 93 88 84 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 41 49 58 65 68 71 70 69 65 63 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 18 13 10 15 13 18 17 17 14 13 15 13 22 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -1 0 0 -2 2 0 0 -3 0 4 5 -2 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 45 59 65 60 65 80 139 133 136 125 92 74 40 2 326 315 295 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.0 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.4 26.9 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 131 132 135 142 139 134 126 127 124 121 117 118 123 122 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 131 132 135 142 139 134 125 123 117 114 111 110 113 109 108 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.9 -52.8 -53.6 -52.5 -53.3 -52.5 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 82 83 85 85 86 86 82 78 72 68 62 58 55 51 50 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 15 16 14 20 21 24 26 30 28 26 21 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 83 105 116 122 116 112 119 129 137 136 141 102 76 43 20 5 -2 200 MB DIV 51 75 79 89 72 64 95 102 132 149 101 59 -3 -19 -4 18 30 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -4 0 -3 4 4 0 1 -2 -2 -4 0 2 2 4 LAND (KM) 192 267 328 338 393 645 926 1261 1600 1879 1926 1962 2051 2179 2295 2403 2446 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.8 10.4 11.6 12.7 13.3 13.6 13.6 14.1 15.4 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 15.3 16.6 17.7 18.7 19.9 22.7 25.8 29.1 32.3 34.9 36.6 37.5 38.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 12 14 16 16 17 14 11 7 9 11 11 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 6 9 12 15 13 10 5 13 13 7 1 5 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 34. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 6. 7. 12. 14. 19. 16. 12. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 33. 40. 51. 58. 67. 68. 68. 63. 59. 57. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.7 15.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 08/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 13.5% 8.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 29.8% 12.0% 2.7% 2.4% 7.9% 17.4% 24.9% Bayesian: 1.7% 8.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 5.4% 45.8% Consensus: 3.8% 17.2% 7.4% 3.2% 0.8% 2.9% 10.9% 23.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 08/30/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 36 40 46 58 65 76 83 92 93 93 88 84 82 80 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 41 53 60 71 78 87 88 88 83 79 77 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 35 47 54 65 72 81 82 82 77 73 71 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 37 44 55 62 71 72 72 67 63 61 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT