* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 26 29 31 34 36 38 40 41 41 38 33 26 22 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 28 30 33 35 38 40 42 44 45 44 42 37 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 22 24 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 35 38 41 42 40 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 13 18 16 20 16 11 16 5 9 13 25 34 38 56 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 2 0 -3 6 0 0 -3 -3 1 -2 3 0 -3 -15 -4 SHEAR DIR 46 226 247 263 261 249 333 329 17 7 296 286 250 267 307 337 354 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.6 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.1 24.8 22.0 21.4 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 140 133 130 140 132 129 128 129 126 126 121 110 93 90 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 115 109 108 116 109 108 111 115 116 116 111 100 85 83 81 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 -54.9 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 10 7 7 9 7 9 8 10 8 7 4 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 56 57 56 54 58 57 55 56 55 54 50 52 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -14 -27 -42 -31 -25 -36 -31 -39 -35 -57 -55 -81 -113 -160 -146 -124 200 MB DIV 16 24 4 6 12 -10 -36 27 21 34 41 23 28 -15 -10 -48 -71 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 0 1 4 4 14 18 13 16 -2 24 0 12 -25 0 LAND (KM) -9 -9 -10 9 31 185 269 373 460 654 943 964 845 737 1192 1788 1423 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.4 32.6 32.7 32.8 32.3 31.9 31.7 32.0 32.8 34.2 36.2 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.1 80.9 80.4 79.8 79.2 77.5 76.4 74.9 72.8 69.5 64.9 59.4 53.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 7 5 7 12 17 23 26 29 30 28 27 25 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 17 10 7 33 24 9 9 7 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -3. -9. -15. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 18. 13. 6. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 32.0 81.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 13.4% 8.6% 2.6% 0.5% 2.7% 2.0% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 28 30 33 35 38 40 42 44 45 44 42 37 30 26 18HR AGO 20 19 20 25 27 30 32 35 37 39 41 42 41 39 34 27 23 12HR AGO 20 17 16 21 23 26 28 31 33 35 37 38 37 35 30 23 19 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT