* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 26 31 35 38 41 42 42 38 36 34 35 37 39 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 26 33 37 40 42 43 43 40 37 36 37 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 20 22 24 25 26 30 32 34 36 38 40 40 39 38 38 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 4 8 14 11 16 5 19 20 26 34 29 21 11 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 2 0 -1 2 4 1 2 -1 -3 -5 0 -4 0 5 SHEAR DIR 13 50 231 255 271 254 266 352 341 24 18 52 50 66 83 106 183 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.3 27.1 27.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 145 147 144 141 131 140 135 132 133 134 135 134 130 129 135 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 119 117 115 109 115 111 108 110 109 111 113 116 118 126 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 10 7 10 8 11 10 12 11 12 11 11 9 6 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 56 56 55 50 53 54 55 54 56 58 55 55 57 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 -2 -22 -38 -24 -59 -51 -66 -31 -41 -47 -51 -55 -62 -36 -49 200 MB DIV 19 8 25 15 16 -2 -45 -32 37 7 -23 -42 -3 25 0 49 -14 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 2 0 5 1 4 0 1 -1 -1 -2 7 -1 10 -7 LAND (KM) -22 -56 -58 -22 -14 65 194 255 283 292 319 347 424 439 547 715 590 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.7 32.0 32.2 32.3 32.1 31.2 30.7 30.0 29.8 29.3 29.3 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.6 81.8 81.7 81.3 80.9 79.8 78.9 78.6 78.2 78.0 77.5 77.2 76.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 6 4 3 3 3 2 3 6 16 21 28 33 HEAT CONTENT 25 13 9 15 20 11 35 32 26 29 32 30 19 7 7 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. -12. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 18. 16. 14. 15. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.4 81.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 42.1% 30.5% 13.9% 5.7% 17.7% 7.3% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 14.1% 10.2% 4.7% 1.9% 5.9% 2.4% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/27/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 25 26 33 37 40 42 43 43 40 37 36 37 38 41 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 23 30 34 37 39 40 40 37 34 33 34 35 38 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 25 29 32 34 35 35 32 29 28 29 30 33 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT