* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/25/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 39 45 50 54 59 62 64 68 71 75 78 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 5 3 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -4 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 70 84 66 90 160 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.0 29.2 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 141 135 153 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 123 120 115 127 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 50 52 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -6 -20 -16 -6 24 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -41 -24 -28 -3 2 23 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 235 183 132 67 -4 -112 -149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.6 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.0 79.7 80.5 81.4 82.7 83.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 29 25 17 17 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 15. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 29. 32. 34. 38. 41. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.3 78.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/25/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.1% 7.8% 7.3% 5.3% 8.9% 10.1% 15.1% Logistic: 3.4% 14.2% 13.6% 6.9% 1.8% 7.6% 6.4% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.5% 7.2% 4.7% 2.4% 5.5% 5.5% 8.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/25/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/25/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT