* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/25/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 34 39 46 52 56 60 63 66 71 75 80 83 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 28 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 28 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 5 3 3 2 1 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 19 45 89 77 143 112 136 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 29.8 30.3 29.2 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 143 138 165 171 155 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 122 123 118 140 149 132 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 8 8 8 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 51 50 52 56 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -19 -13 4 -4 -6 14 -12 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -36 -47 -17 -14 -8 18 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 -1 -2 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 303 244 186 101 21 -53 30 -73 -161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 32 24 16 9 39 22 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. 41. 45. 50. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.0 77.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/25/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.5% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 7.1% 8.4% 1.6% 0.2% 2.0% 1.4% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.7% 6.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/25/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/25/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 32 28 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 26 30 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 23 27 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 16 20 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT