* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 35 40 47 53 57 61 64 67 72 75 79 82 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 29 33 40 46 43 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 29 32 36 41 41 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 12 13 9 7 3 2 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 339 2 10 43 38 116 95 163 343 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.1 29.4 30.4 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 144 137 157 170 169 166 160 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 122 124 118 134 152 143 138 133 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 8 10 8 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 51 52 51 54 57 62 57 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 0 -21 -15 3 -8 11 -4 -3 -32 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -7 -39 -42 -22 0 -12 29 17 -10 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 0 -5 0 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 322 276 229 143 56 -82 27 36 67 -8 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 7 7 8 7 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 32 34 30 18 22 43 22 20 18 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. 42. 45. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.0 77.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.82 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 6.0% 5.9% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.7% 0.5% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/24/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/24/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 33 29 33 40 46 43 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 27 31 38 44 41 32 27 26 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 23 27 34 40 37 28 23 22 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 17 21 28 34 31 22 17 16 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT