* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 29 31 35 40 46 51 54 58 60 63 64 67 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 29 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 32 33 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 32 36 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 17 20 20 4 6 5 4 2 4 5 10 4 8 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -4 -5 -3 -2 -3 -5 -2 0 -2 7 5 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 309 330 331 342 3 41 55 64 88 261 270 335 48 42 51 75 73 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 29.5 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.9 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 143 144 143 142 158 169 166 161 159 161 164 162 165 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 115 120 122 123 121 131 139 133 129 131 133 136 135 137 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 10 7 10 7 11 8 12 9 13 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 50 51 52 54 58 61 61 58 53 51 52 50 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 16 2 -31 -26 -12 -3 11 -16 -17 -31 -44 -80 -100 -98 -89 -128 200 MB DIV -35 -9 7 -37 -33 -9 -14 11 8 -1 -10 -34 -15 -30 -4 -28 -39 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -1 -4 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 1 -1 3 -3 LAND (KM) 326 360 364 321 269 117 -29 -91 -77 -113 -112 -76 -20 40 48 40 13 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.4 30.1 30.6 31.1 31.1 30.7 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.4 77.0 76.9 77.3 77.9 79.5 81.4 82.6 83.5 84.0 84.3 84.6 85.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 4 6 8 8 5 4 2 2 4 5 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 26 30 32 26 19 5 5 5 5 4 20 19 18 21 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 35. 38. 39. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.2 77.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/24/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.82 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 6.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/24/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/24/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 28 29 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 32 33 36 39 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 28 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 29 30 33 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 25 26 29 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT