* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 29 32 36 42 46 50 53 57 60 63 65 68 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 29 28 27 36 40 44 48 52 54 58 60 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 31 34 39 44 50 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 15 13 15 8 3 5 1 3 1 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 306 324 329 336 15 349 105 44 140 69 94 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.6 30.7 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 147 149 144 171 157 154 156 156 153 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 120 123 126 123 159 133 129 131 130 125 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 8 8 10 8 10 8 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 54 51 52 51 57 58 66 62 60 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 4 5 4 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -8 17 7 -11 11 -12 10 -13 -6 -25 -17 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -37 -1 0 -35 -13 -10 3 0 21 14 -47 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -5 -5 -2 -4 0 -3 0 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 226 217 212 171 130 -6 -10 138 103 96 111 84 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 4 5 7 8 6 4 5 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 34 34 34 32 21 52 20 18 19 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.3 78.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 8.4% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.5% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.7% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/24/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 29 28 27 36 40 44 48 52 54 58 60 63 66 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 27 26 25 34 38 42 46 50 52 56 58 61 64 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 21 20 29 33 37 41 45 47 51 53 56 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT