* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/24/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 32 32 35 39 45 49 52 57 61 64 66 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 32 32 28 34 40 43 47 52 55 59 61 38 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 26 31 34 39 44 51 57 63 67 41 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 24 25 16 15 16 3 6 2 6 4 12 8 17 13 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -6 -1 0 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 281 287 303 318 322 353 35 46 96 16 31 20 100 66 98 72 89 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.3 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 144 146 151 155 171 171 165 167 168 166 163 157 162 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 121 122 128 134 155 151 144 146 146 144 142 138 142 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 10 9 12 9 13 9 13 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 57 54 53 52 51 53 56 59 59 52 52 49 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -18 -12 7 0 -12 8 -13 -9 -18 -17 -13 -35 -44 -56 -49 -33 200 MB DIV 31 1 -40 -3 -7 -38 -10 -23 -3 -5 3 -8 -16 -18 -38 -2 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -6 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -5 -1 -14 -2 LAND (KM) 221 224 230 226 202 67 -77 98 252 348 247 235 229 220 15 -194 -421 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.7 78.4 78.2 78.1 78.2 79.4 81.1 83.2 85.0 86.8 88.5 90.0 91.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 7 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 33 35 43 39 17 29 29 94 118 46 29 18 26 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 10. 14. 20. 24. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.6 78.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/24/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.0% 6.4% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.7% 4.6% 1.4% 0.2% 2.5% 4.3% 10.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.0% 3.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.8% 4.1% 3.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/24/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/24/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 32 32 28 34 40 43 47 52 55 59 61 38 30 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 28 28 24 30 36 39 43 48 51 55 57 34 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 23 19 25 31 34 38 43 46 50 52 29 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT