* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/23/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 32 33 36 40 42 44 48 51 55 57 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 32 33 29 34 37 39 42 45 49 51 38 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 28 26 30 32 35 37 40 44 48 38 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 28 26 18 21 15 10 10 8 15 9 16 5 17 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -4 -5 -4 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 285 287 290 305 318 347 38 30 69 84 104 85 91 125 90 71 80 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.1 30.4 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 139 140 141 145 153 171 165 166 165 167 163 158 157 164 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 116 116 117 123 133 158 145 146 144 146 142 140 138 144 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 9 8 10 9 12 10 12 10 12 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 58 57 53 55 52 55 54 58 55 57 49 53 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -5 -8 -12 10 -23 19 -11 -4 -17 -18 -22 -26 -49 -39 -43 -30 200 MB DIV 20 18 -6 -9 7 -29 -29 -26 0 -16 9 -10 -4 -6 0 -12 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -13 -2 -6 0 -6 0 -2 -4 -15 -1 LAND (KM) 228 287 310 325 333 255 95 -86 103 280 246 195 199 254 92 -117 -353 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 30.3 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.9 78.3 77.8 77.5 77.3 77.9 79.4 81.5 83.7 85.6 87.6 89.4 91.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 6 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 22 22 24 32 34 11 25 29 58 58 29 19 18 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.8 78.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/23/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 8.3% 5.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.8% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.7% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2% 2.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/23/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/23/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 34 32 33 29 34 37 39 42 45 49 51 38 30 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 28 29 25 30 33 35 38 41 45 47 34 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 23 24 20 25 28 30 33 36 40 42 29 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT