* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 07/23/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 31 32 34 37 39 42 45 49 52 55 59 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 31 32 34 32 29 33 37 40 44 47 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 20 20 20 19 24 29 31 35 39 44 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 17 23 30 27 20 24 10 11 6 8 6 7 7 6 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 -5 -7 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 306 286 279 288 312 319 358 32 48 79 57 136 63 133 126 159 129 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.7 30.8 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 140 138 137 140 143 151 146 170 159 158 161 160 165 161 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 118 116 114 116 121 130 126 160 136 133 134 135 142 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 8 9 8 11 9 12 8 700-500 MB RH 56 60 59 58 58 53 54 55 55 57 60 59 58 53 52 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 4 0 -11 -18 -2 -15 5 -13 -1 -5 1 -27 -43 -59 -63 -62 200 MB DIV 8 18 18 -10 2 2 -57 -12 -22 17 -3 17 -13 2 -12 -30 -29 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 -3 -6 -3 -6 -4 -4 -2 -1 1 -2 5 -1 LAND (KM) 161 246 321 381 405 409 321 164 -23 -10 114 189 209 238 152 134 171 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 30.9 30.5 30.0 29.7 29.0 28.6 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.3 78.4 77.7 77.1 76.7 76.5 77.3 78.8 80.8 82.4 84.0 85.2 86.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 4 4 6 8 8 7 7 5 4 5 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 32 26 19 18 20 27 39 22 52 22 21 29 42 45 30 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 38. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 17. 19. 22. 25. 29. 32. 35. 39. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.3 79.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 07/23/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 3.7% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 07/23/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 07/23/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 28 31 32 34 32 29 33 37 40 44 47 50 53 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 28 29 31 29 26 30 34 37 41 44 47 50 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 23 24 26 24 21 25 29 32 36 39 42 45 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT