* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 05/22/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 49 44 50 52 54 56 56 56 56 53 47 45 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 49 44 50 52 54 56 56 56 56 53 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 47 49 54 57 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 3 6 9 13 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -10 -5 -4 -7 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 231 240 282 290 355 332 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.2 21.4 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 20.7 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 83 82 80 81 83 86 83 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 73 70 70 72 76 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.8 -56.2 -57.0 -57.8 -57.5 -57.7 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.9 4.6 4.1 3.5 2.5 2.2 0.9 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 41 42 50 55 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 18 15 12 8 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 124 112 122 110 96 48 77 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -12 -25 -3 14 -15 -9 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 2 18 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1050 1044 1021 998 975 941 950 979 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 3 2 4 10 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 854 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 19. 19. 15. 8. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -16. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. -1. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 8. 2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.5 61.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 05/22/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 05/22/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 05/22/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 49 49 49 44 50 52 54 56 56 56 56 53 47 45 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 47 47 42 48 50 52 54 54 54 54 51 45 43 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 42 37 43 45 47 49 49 49 49 46 40 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 30 36 38 40 42 42 42 42 39 33 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT