* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 05/21/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 56 53 48 42 42 42 42 41 40 36 30 26 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 58 56 53 48 42 42 42 42 41 40 36 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 55 57 58 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 28 20 17 5 13 17 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -7 -6 0 3 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 246 247 250 279 347 334 312 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.4 21.5 22.2 22.1 19.5 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 83 83 82 82 84 88 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 75 74 72 72 73 79 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -55.6 -55.1 -55.7 -56.0 -57.9 -57.5 -57.8 -57.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.5 3.4 4.0 5.1 4.2 2.5 2.3 0.9 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 46 45 45 44 45 50 56 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 20 19 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 92 118 102 105 93 70 44 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 22 4 2 -20 20 -4 17 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -1 -1 2 2 0 4 22 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1054 1039 1045 1036 1020 923 920 976 892 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 9 5 4 3 13 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 15. 8. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. 3. -2. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -14. -20. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 35.7 58.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 05/21/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 05/21/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 05/21/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 56 58 56 53 48 42 42 42 42 41 40 36 30 26 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 55 53 50 45 39 39 39 39 38 37 33 27 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 50 48 45 40 34 34 34 34 33 32 28 22 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 40 37 32 26 26 26 26 25 24 20 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT