* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 05/21/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 56 56 53 48 38 26 33 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 56 56 53 48 38 26 33 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 54 54 54 53 51 49 49 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 35 30 33 35 26 30 39 35 47 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -3 -3 -7 -2 -5 -5 -5 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 240 249 260 253 275 315 297 290 241 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.0 19.8 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.7 21.3 19.7 19.3 18.9 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 79 79 78 77 78 83 80 80 80 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 72 72 70 69 69 74 73 75 75 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.4 -55.7 -55.2 -55.4 -56.6 -58.0 -58.1 -57.7 -56.0 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.6 3.5 3.4 3.7 4.6 3.2 2.3 1.6 -0.2 1.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 46 49 45 49 50 62 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 21 20 19 15 11 6 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 82 101 121 123 86 61 23 61 85 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 41 35 3 0 -7 30 -16 -24 57 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 9 -3 -3 3 2 8 24 23 -9 -121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1143 1125 1095 1102 1114 1053 969 980 922 757 847 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 4 3 9 15 20 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. -23. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -25. -36. -40. -44. -49. -53. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 20. 19. 16. 9. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -24. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -12. -24. -17. -31. -34. -37. -41. -45. -52. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 35.5 56.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 05/21/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 05/21/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 05/21/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 56 56 53 48 38 26 33 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 52 53 53 50 45 35 23 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 44 39 29 17 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 37 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT