* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 05/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 57 56 53 49 42 31 30 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 57 56 53 49 42 31 30 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 55 54 51 50 51 52 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 62 49 32 37 43 28 10 23 30 23 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -4 -3 -7 -7 -6 -1 0 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 233 243 254 251 232 285 294 306 255 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.8 20.2 19.9 20.1 20.6 20.4 20.7 21.0 19.6 18.9 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 81 79 79 80 78 79 83 81 80 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 74 72 72 71 69 70 75 75 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.1 -56.3 -55.5 -55.1 -56.1 -57.4 -58.1 -58.0 -57.4 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.9 2.3 1.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 45 45 44 49 43 46 53 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 22 20 19 15 11 6 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 108 94 106 130 114 79 49 24 120 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 40 40 34 2 5 14 20 14 48 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 45 30 1 -6 -3 12 0 4 25 -15 -188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1260 1219 1158 1171 1193 1159 1058 1011 953 836 794 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 14 11 10 7 4 5 12 19 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. -22. -28. -32. -35. -39. -42. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 20. 16. 10. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -22. -21. -23. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -8. -19. -20. -29. -32. -35. -37. -41. -46. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 34.9 55.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 05/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 05/21/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 05/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 57 56 53 49 42 31 30 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 52 53 52 49 45 38 27 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 46 43 39 32 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 36 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT