* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 05/20/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 54 53 49 43 33 23 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 54 53 49 43 33 23 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 45 46 46 47 48 49 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 65 58 45 34 32 33 16 26 33 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -5 -1 -6 -3 -4 -4 -3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 224 238 237 234 237 260 315 306 302 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.7 20.3 20.1 20.3 21.1 20.9 20.4 20.8 21.0 20.3 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 82 81 81 82 79 78 80 83 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 75 74 75 74 70 69 72 75 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -55.9 -56.0 -55.9 -55.2 -55.4 -56.6 -57.8 -58.3 -58.0 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 2.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 5.3 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.3 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 46 43 42 43 50 48 46 47 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 23 23 21 18 16 11 7 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 130 109 125 140 130 85 53 39 75 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 60 45 54 37 15 11 25 -12 21 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 64 44 11 -3 0 6 1 5 19 15 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1360 1288 1220 1228 1252 1247 1135 1038 978 952 840 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 14 14 8 3 5 7 12 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 15 CX,CY: 3/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -13. -20. -25. -29. -34. -37. -42. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. 20. 16. 9. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -14. -21. -14. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 14. 13. 9. 3. -7. -17. -13. -17. -21. -24. -30. -37. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.4 53.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 05/20/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 05/20/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 05/20/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 52 54 53 49 43 33 23 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 43 48 50 49 45 39 29 19 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 43 42 38 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT