* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 05/20/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 50 51 47 37 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 50 51 47 37 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 37 37 38 40 42 43 44 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 76 63 62 51 45 42 33 46 39 35 18 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 3 -4 -3 0 -9 -2 -6 -4 -1 0 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 226 238 245 261 243 238 258 280 298 279 238 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.6 20.0 19.3 19.9 19.7 20.8 21.7 20.0 20.7 20.3 18.7 9.8 4.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 80 78 80 79 81 82 79 81 81 78 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 73 71 74 73 73 72 72 73 73 72 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -56.9 -56.5 -56.4 -56.6 -55.1 -56.2 -56.9 -57.4 -58.6 -56.6 -53.0 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 1.9 2.3 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.8 2.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 59 49 47 45 48 53 57 53 56 62 52 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 21 23 22 20 18 16 14 13 12 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 111 105 93 76 148 103 43 27 91 209 162 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 83 75 44 39 27 35 25 -11 71 66 23 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 59 54 15 -2 -10 0 9 6 7 28 -13 -158 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1535 1417 1292 1197 1114 1220 1331 1179 983 838 730 420 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 15 13 9 4 10 10 13 16 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -9. -22. -32. -40. -45. -52. -60. -67. -73. -77. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 17. 10. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 15. 16. 12. 2. -6. -15. -21. -30. -35. -43. -50. -58. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.9 52.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 05/20/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 59.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 05/20/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 05/20/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 47 50 51 47 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 46 47 43 33 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 39 35 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT