* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 05/20/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 47 52 54 50 41 32 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 42 47 52 54 50 41 32 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 27 25 25 25 27 31 39 49 54 54 51 N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 90 87 78 68 73 67 49 37 34 14 9 10 28 37 37 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -12 -15 -9 0 -5 -6 -9 -7 0 5 7 10 5 9 -5 20 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 238 234 226 237 265 275 355 6 27 281 270 292 302 291 181 N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.7 22.3 20.3 19.8 19.1 18.8 16.8 11.4 5.1 8.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 7.8 3.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 92 91 82 80 76 78 72 66 69 72 71 68 64 67 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 83 83 76 73 70 72 67 64 68 71 70 67 63 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -57.4 -57.0 -56.8 -57.9 -58.2 -59.1 -59.0 -59.9 -59.9 -59.8 -58.4 -58.2 -59.0 -56.8 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -1.3 -0.7 -1.0 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 69 63 51 42 39 44 53 62 70 80 75 68 56 47 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 14 16 17 19 19 17 17 13 13 11 9 10 10 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 89 101 97 71 34 -51 -53 21 52 118 101 53 -38 -39 -47 N/A 200 MB DIV 60 94 87 75 62 11 0 37 30 70 48 19 19 6 -23 -107 N/A 700-850 TADV 30 41 58 44 25 -41 -1 10 18 30 5 179 155 63 -10 -16 N/A LAND (KM) 1701 1668 1566 1390 1226 990 792 482 315 122 649 1457 1106 880 911 1328 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.2 32.6 34.2 35.7 37.8 39.5 41.3 43.2 45.6 49.5 54.4 58.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.4 54.3 53.1 52.4 52.0 52.7 55.4 58.6 58.4 53.7 44.2 33.8 25.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 15 17 16 14 11 16 11 14 30 41 36 24 12 20 30 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 4. 4. -0. -14. -31. -44. -52. -56. -57. -60. -68. -74. -73. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. 25. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 31. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 1. -0. -3. -7. -6. -6. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 17. 22. 24. 20. 11. 2. -9. -12. -15. -19. -24. -30. -35. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.4 55.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 05/20/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 79.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902021 INVEST 05/20/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 05/20/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 42 47 52 54 50 41 32 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 36 41 46 48 44 35 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 38 34 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT