* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 12/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 46 39 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 46 39 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 45 47 47 42 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 32 35 41 71 89 84 82 85 83 82 77 76 75 83 88 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -3 0 -8 -22 -6 -6 -10 -13 -11 -8 -5 -3 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 256 257 261 260 255 254 252 260 265 259 255 261 265 269 267 276 274 SST (C) 19.9 20.1 20.6 20.9 21.2 22.1 22.8 22.7 22.8 23.1 22.9 22.0 18.0 18.8 18.0 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 77 78 81 83 84 87 89 88 88 90 91 89 77 79 78 114 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 69 70 73 75 77 78 78 77 78 80 82 82 74 77 75 111 109 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.8 -56.2 -56.5 -57.0 -57.4 -56.6 -56.2 -56.3 -56.6 -56.8 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 4.7 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.0 2.8 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 61 59 57 52 40 36 30 27 32 27 27 22 18 19 19 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 21 20 17 13 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 188 187 174 163 151 96 64 37 5 3 -7 31 66 35 -15 -32 -40 200 MB DIV -15 -34 -42 -41 -67 -113 -88 -41 -53 -36 -5 -16 -18 -8 -10 0 6 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 0 1 -10 -9 -12 -23 -32 -39 -34 -56 -21 -5 7 26 LAND (KM) 1067 1120 1156 1197 1229 1162 1036 916 805 689 527 255 -152 -598 -902 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 34.9 34.5 33.8 32.8 30.6 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.2 25.8 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.7 21.5 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.1 24.4 23.3 22.2 21.1 19.7 17.4 13.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 10 12 13 10 6 5 5 6 10 16 21 22 23 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -14. -32. -50. -67. -81. -92.-100.-109.-116.-124.-129. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 10. 12. 12. 11. 12. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 10. 6. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -21. -26. -30. -35. -37. -36. -36. -35. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. -1. -14. -34. -52. -70. -84. -93. -99.-108.-116.-124.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.0 20.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 12/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 12/01/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 46 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 43 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT