* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 09/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 48 55 61 60 61 59 61 61 63 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 48 55 61 60 61 59 61 61 63 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 39 41 41 41 40 39 38 37 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 3 5 9 8 13 15 6 16 15 16 19 13 10 6 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 -5 -1 1 -1 6 3 8 0 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 74 89 73 137 198 222 209 263 248 270 248 250 231 251 229 219 193 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 168 169 168 168 168 168 168 167 168 169 169 168 164 159 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 153 156 157 158 154 153 150 148 149 149 147 143 140 136 125 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 10 10 7 9 6 7 4 6 3 5 2 6 3 6 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 75 76 76 70 64 57 52 51 54 53 52 51 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 5 8 11 10 12 9 9 7 8 7 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 7 21 32 46 44 37 40 49 63 53 30 7 20 -2 10 0 17 200 MB DIV 11 26 23 39 44 47 48 43 32 29 11 23 26 8 19 -3 31 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 2 1 4 6 11 2 9 3 7 3 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 291 312 323 333 351 392 423 403 401 415 469 398 291 221 160 101 25 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.4 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.0 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.8 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.0 94.0 94.0 93.9 93.7 93.3 92.8 92.3 92.2 92.7 93.4 94.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 74 78 80 85 87 93 90 84 82 83 91 87 86 81 58 36 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 5. 5. 7. 3. 1. -2. -1. -3. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 23. 30. 36. 35. 36. 34. 36. 36. 38. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.2 94.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 09/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.53 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.9% 14.3% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 19.5% 9.1% 5.8% 2.9% 17.6% 28.7% 49.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% Consensus: 3.2% 14.2% 8.0% 5.5% 1.0% 5.9% 14.2% 17.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 09/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 09/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 39 48 55 61 60 61 59 61 61 63 62 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 46 53 59 58 59 57 59 59 61 60 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 41 48 54 53 54 52 54 54 56 55 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 33 40 46 45 46 44 46 46 48 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT