* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 08/31/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 31 35 38 38 36 32 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 31 35 38 38 36 32 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 30 28 27 25 23 20 18 16 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 5 9 19 26 37 33 39 36 39 32 31 21 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -7 1 -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 30 359 348 306 322 314 332 341 350 1 21 31 42 39 29 23 16 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 164 160 158 157 152 148 150 147 147 141 148 151 156 156 154 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 140 137 135 133 129 124 126 124 123 118 121 123 130 133 134 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 66 64 66 70 69 70 64 62 64 67 64 59 58 58 59 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 6 4 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -40 -42 -23 -29 -38 -48 -67 -79 -75 -41 -45 -44 -43 -49 -50 -62 200 MB DIV 26 -5 5 21 31 -15 -6 -34 14 0 -2 -4 5 -2 8 -6 -4 700-850 TADV 7 2 1 11 9 3 15 13 12 14 10 2 1 -1 1 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 227 315 326 333 328 343 474 674 871 1049 1234 1364 1423 1396 1307 1170 1018 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.1 33.4 34.3 34.7 34.6 33.9 32.8 31.8 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.0 77.8 76.9 75.9 75.0 73.1 70.8 68.4 65.7 63.2 61.6 60.8 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 7 5 4 5 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 66 70 70 67 43 36 25 29 29 33 24 21 21 23 26 24 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. -1. -7. -14. -21. -26. -31. -34. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 13. 11. 7. 3. -1. -6. -13. -17. -15. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.4 79.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 08/31/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 19.9% 14.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 40.5% 27.4% 11.4% 4.1% 18.3% 12.8% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 20.3% 14.0% 7.4% 1.4% 6.1% 7.9% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902020 INVEST 08/31/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 08/31/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 31 35 38 38 36 32 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 34 37 37 35 31 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 33 33 31 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 24 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT