* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 09/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 45 50 59 67 73 77 79 78 77 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 45 50 59 67 73 77 79 78 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 42 45 50 55 63 71 76 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 7 8 11 7 6 6 3 4 7 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 6 8 12 7 4 8 2 0 5 1 SHEAR DIR 281 263 261 263 276 256 309 355 346 136 195 224 261 SST (C) 28.5 29.0 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 153 155 149 151 151 147 141 132 133 133 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 153 155 149 151 151 147 141 130 128 126 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 77 76 72 72 69 67 70 71 71 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 17 18 21 23 24 24 25 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 5 15 22 34 37 49 56 61 59 56 45 34 27 200 MB DIV 57 89 113 132 160 144 139 103 46 74 54 33 9 700-850 TADV 5 0 -5 -4 -8 -9 -8 -9 -5 -7 1 5 11 LAND (KM) 184 274 410 566 733 1042 1359 1658 1941 1866 1758 1766 1833 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.6 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 17.7 19.0 20.4 21.9 23.5 26.7 29.9 32.8 35.5 37.5 39.1 40.2 41.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 16 16 14 12 9 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 10 9 11 13 19 17 11 16 23 21 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 25. 34. 42. 48. 52. 54. 53. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 17.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 09/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 37.7% 23.8% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 39.1% 18.6% 5.8% 2.8% 8.1% 9.1% 14.5% Bayesian: 4.8% 27.3% 8.1% 1.4% 1.4% 3.5% 0.9% 6.0% Consensus: 7.6% 34.7% 16.8% 5.9% 1.4% 3.8% 9.1% 6.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 10.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 09/22/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 38 45 50 59 67 73 77 79 78 77 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 40 45 54 62 68 72 74 73 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 33 38 47 55 61 65 67 66 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 27 36 44 50 54 56 55 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT