* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/05/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 52 54 39 26 23 20 21 19 16 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 52 54 39 26 23 20 21 19 16 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 48 54 57 48 40 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 6 5 4 1 32 50 41 23 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 0 2 18 17 14 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 222 219 237 339 328 189 193 211 242 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.4 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.3 21.7 19.0 16.0 13.8 12.2 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 83 85 85 84 86 88 82 76 72 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 74 73 72 75 80 77 73 70 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -58.2 -58.4 -58.6 -59.1 -60.4 -59.7 -58.0 -56.3 -53.1 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.4 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 3 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 42 42 43 51 39 39 41 51 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 16 14 13 12 15 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -16 2 4 -9 -3 -52 -92 -65 -11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 16 -8 -6 -2 25 52 19 29 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 1 3 -2 -28 -111 -136 -91 -92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1497 1553 1611 1644 1677 1726 1744 1196 624 323 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.6 38.8 38.0 37.7 37.4 38.9 42.7 47.3 51.8 55.5 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.3 37.1 34.8 30.5 25.2 19.4 14.2 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 3 6 18 27 30 27 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 19. 23. 26. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 27. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -15. -24. -26. -27. -28. -29. -28. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. -6. -19. -22. -25. -24. -26. -29. -29. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.6 37.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/05/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 8.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.6% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/05/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/05/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 49 52 54 39 26 23 20 21 19 16 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 50 52 37 24 21 18 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 46 48 33 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT