* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/05/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 51 54 50 33 43 40 39 37 34 32 28 26 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 51 54 50 33 43 40 39 37 34 32 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 47 51 58 55 46 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 15 8 6 11 15 46 47 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 0 -7 9 16 10 18 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 209 228 214 233 333 221 198 209 230 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.5 20.9 21.9 21.9 22.2 22.2 20.7 17.6 14.7 13.3 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 83 86 85 84 88 86 78 72 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 74 75 74 72 78 79 74 69 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -58.0 -58.1 -58.6 -58.7 -59.7 -60.1 -58.6 -57.3 -55.1 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.1 -1.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 2 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 40 39 41 41 50 44 40 35 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 15 13 13 14 4 14 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -25 -6 2 0 17 0 -64 -111 -121 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 46 16 -11 -17 31 63 35 19 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -3 0 1 1 -19 -83 -59 -27 -100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1374 1460 1553 1595 1638 1671 1743 1573 1014 714 579 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.1 39.9 38.7 38.1 37.4 38.0 40.5 45.0 49.0 51.7 53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.8 37.6 37.5 37.6 37.7 36.5 33.2 28.8 23.8 20.7 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 9 7 3 12 23 27 22 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 23. 27. 28. 29. 31. 32. 31. 28. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -21. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 5. -12. -2. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 41.1 37.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/05/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/05/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/05/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 49 51 54 50 33 43 40 39 37 34 32 28 26 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 49 52 48 31 41 38 37 35 32 30 26 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 45 48 44 27 37 34 33 31 28 26 22 20 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 41 37 20 30 27 26 24 21 19 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT