* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 50 51 53 57 43 27 21 19 17 16 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 50 51 53 57 43 27 21 19 17 16 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 49 51 57 60 49 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 21 17 10 6 12 38 49 43 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 3 2 0 -1 -2 19 13 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 204 211 227 222 315 285 184 195 216 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.8 20.3 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.1 21.6 18.9 16.1 14.4 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 79 80 83 86 84 87 80 74 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 68 71 71 74 75 73 79 75 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -57.7 -58.5 -59.1 -59.1 -59.2 -60.1 -59.5 -58.0 -57.5 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 -1.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 44 40 38 41 43 53 43 36 38 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 16 16 14 13 18 11 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 1 -39 -31 -4 9 23 -12 -56 -173 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 21 53 15 -21 7 35 48 4 21 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -4 -4 0 8 -7 -34 -87 -78 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1274 1329 1389 1460 1535 1622 1628 1723 1432 969 566 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.1 41.3 40.4 39.5 38.5 37.6 39.1 42.8 46.5 49.7 52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.4 38.3 38.2 38.1 38.0 37.7 36.0 31.9 28.1 23.6 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 10 7 4 17 23 22 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 835 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -10. -15. -19. -23. -28. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 33. 31. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -4. -14. -26. -27. -28. -29. -28. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 12. -2. -18. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 42.1 38.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/05/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/05/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 49 50 51 53 57 43 27 21 19 17 16 15 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 48 50 54 40 24 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 44 46 50 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 39 43 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT