* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/04/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 47 47 47 50 57 57 42 37 32 29 27 24 22 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 47 47 47 50 57 57 42 37 32 29 27 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 49 54 63 62 52 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 18 22 23 15 8 6 26 39 47 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -5 0 0 0 -5 1 14 7 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 210 201 209 216 221 237 242 180 184 198 220 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.1 20.0 19.9 20.2 20.3 21.7 22.0 21.7 20.1 17.8 14.8 13.9 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 76 76 78 79 84 83 86 83 79 73 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 68 67 67 69 70 74 71 76 76 74 70 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.8 -56.1 -56.3 -57.1 -58.6 -59.0 -59.8 -60.4 -60.1 -59.2 -58.8 -57.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 -0.4 0.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 49 46 38 39 51 55 45 33 34 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 18 18 14 13 12 15 17 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 39 21 25 12 -26 11 19 22 -39 -55 -126 -182 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 77 98 65 18 -17 -12 29 74 27 20 18 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -4 -9 -3 0 2 -27 -59 -106 -87 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1211 1230 1251 1318 1387 1525 1611 1642 1703 1590 974 540 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.7 41.9 42.0 41.5 41.0 39.1 38.0 38.7 41.1 44.7 49.0 51.5 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.6 39.2 38.8 38.2 37.7 37.5 37.4 36.2 33.3 28.8 23.2 18.1 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 6 7 8 3 11 20 27 25 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -16. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -1. -7. -14. -21. -26. -29. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. 34. 31. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -12. -10. -23. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 12. 12. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 41.7 39.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/04/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/04/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/04/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 47 47 47 50 57 57 42 37 32 29 27 24 22 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 46 46 46 49 56 56 41 36 31 28 26 23 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 42 42 45 52 52 37 32 27 24 22 19 17 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 35 38 45 45 30 25 20 17 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT