* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/04/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 49 48 49 53 58 66 54 43 39 37 33 31 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 49 48 49 53 58 66 54 43 39 37 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 47 47 48 51 55 66 69 57 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 15 20 23 17 10 6 21 41 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 -3 1 1 -2 -4 0 9 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 226 227 208 203 209 219 241 277 184 186 202 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.7 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.4 20.6 21.6 21.9 22.1 20.8 17.7 14.7 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 80 79 78 77 80 84 83 86 85 79 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 70 69 68 68 70 73 71 75 78 75 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -55.2 -55.8 -55.9 -56.9 -58.7 -59.0 -59.4 -60.2 -60.1 -59.8 -57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.2 2.1 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.0 0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 50 49 51 45 38 41 51 60 50 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 21 20 17 16 14 14 15 24 19 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 92 68 45 22 17 -32 1 21 27 -26 -47 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 33 37 80 86 31 2 -14 23 64 23 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 -2 -8 -2 0 1 -19 -45 -118 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1307 1273 1242 1248 1256 1401 1545 1623 1691 1725 1622 962 369 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.2 40.8 41.3 41.6 41.9 41.0 39.3 38.2 38.1 40.3 44.5 49.1 53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.6 39.6 39.5 39.1 38.8 37.5 37.0 37.0 36.1 33.6 29.2 23.1 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 4 4 7 7 3 8 21 29 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. -3. -9. -17. -21. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. 31. 30. 26. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -14. -3. -11. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 8. 13. 21. 9. -2. -6. -8. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.2 39.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/04/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/04/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/04/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 48 49 48 49 53 58 66 54 43 39 37 33 31 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 48 47 48 52 57 65 53 42 38 36 32 30 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 44 43 44 48 53 61 49 38 34 32 28 26 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 36 37 41 46 54 42 31 27 25 21 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT