* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 49 52 53 51 53 54 57 55 57 54 51 46 43 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 49 52 53 51 53 54 57 55 57 54 51 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 48 49 51 51 50 52 57 61 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 9 12 14 22 25 16 17 20 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 2 1 -1 -3 -3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 271 274 251 237 216 197 211 221 261 259 182 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 23.0 22.6 21.2 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.4 22.2 22.3 21.2 19.4 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 90 89 83 81 78 79 80 87 87 85 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 77 77 74 71 68 69 71 75 75 76 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -54.9 -55.8 -57.3 -58.2 -58.4 -59.7 -60.1 -60.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.9 1.8 0.1 -0.1 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 59 58 53 51 41 34 41 58 60 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 21 21 21 18 18 18 19 18 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 177 163 147 124 116 73 35 1 -15 22 95 46 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 15 28 18 15 39 79 36 3 16 46 61 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 3 3 2 0 -9 -11 -5 0 -7 -54 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1514 1462 1412 1350 1294 1213 1252 1393 1542 1618 1660 1785 1514 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.6 38.2 39.2 40.1 41.2 41.6 40.9 38.4 38.0 39.7 41.7 43.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.4 40.3 40.3 40.1 39.9 40.0 39.1 37.7 38.0 37.3 35.0 31.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 8 4 5 8 8 7 14 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 23. 21. 17. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 6. 8. 9. 12. 10. 12. 9. 6. 1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.9 40.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 9.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/03/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/03/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 49 52 53 51 53 54 57 55 57 54 51 46 43 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 48 51 52 50 52 53 56 54 56 53 50 45 42 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 47 48 46 48 49 52 50 52 49 46 41 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 41 39 41 42 45 43 45 42 39 34 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT