* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 49 51 54 53 49 49 48 47 49 46 43 38 37 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 49 51 54 53 49 49 48 47 49 46 43 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 48 51 51 51 51 52 54 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 11 9 11 16 23 27 29 18 15 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 6 -4 -2 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 287 281 278 256 221 195 204 230 249 228 182 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.0 22.9 21.8 20.7 20.5 19.9 19.9 19.7 20.0 20.3 19.0 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 91 91 86 81 79 77 77 77 77 78 76 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 79 79 76 72 70 68 69 68 69 69 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.8 -56.3 -57.2 -59.3 -59.7 -59.5 -60.1 -59.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 61 60 56 58 55 47 58 65 60 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 23 22 22 23 21 19 20 19 19 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 181 181 171 157 135 82 36 17 -15 -12 33 24 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 36 35 34 30 37 67 82 24 37 61 49 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 2 2 5 0 -3 -13 0 2 -13 -47 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1569 1514 1463 1393 1328 1215 1202 1325 1495 1650 1771 1801 1579 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.2 37.0 37.8 38.8 39.8 41.5 42.5 42.7 42.1 41.4 40.8 41.5 43.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.5 40.3 40.0 39.8 39.7 39.7 39.1 37.3 35.4 33.8 32.6 30.9 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 7 5 7 7 6 5 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -17. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 23. 21. 18. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -9. -11. -12. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 4. 3. 2. 4. 1. -2. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.2 40.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.07 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 11.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/02/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/02/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 48 49 51 54 53 49 49 48 47 49 46 43 38 37 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 50 53 52 48 48 47 46 48 45 42 37 36 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 46 49 48 44 44 43 42 44 41 38 33 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 41 40 36 36 35 34 36 33 30 25 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT