* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/02/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 53 54 55 49 45 42 41 42 39 35 31 29 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 53 54 55 49 45 42 41 42 39 35 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 51 52 53 51 50 49 51 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 12 11 11 10 15 25 32 32 26 18 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 294 292 282 272 228 211 198 204 234 246 221 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.2 23.0 22.8 21.7 20.9 20.0 19.5 18.0 18.9 19.6 18.5 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 92 91 90 85 81 77 76 73 75 77 74 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 80 79 79 75 72 68 68 66 67 69 67 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.0 -54.3 -55.7 -56.6 -58.2 -60.6 -60.0 -59.8 -60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 63 62 60 56 54 46 47 55 60 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 21 20 21 20 16 15 15 14 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 184 174 181 172 154 109 55 16 -18 -62 -38 30 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 50 52 38 30 25 70 84 32 22 23 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 5 2 4 3 1 -11 -12 0 -2 -4 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1626 1579 1535 1463 1395 1274 1198 1244 1427 1604 1763 1776 1577 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.3 37.0 38.0 38.9 40.9 42.3 43.0 43.1 42.5 41.4 40.9 41.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.6 40.3 39.9 39.8 39.7 39.4 39.3 38.2 35.7 33.7 32.3 30.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 23. 21. 17. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -14. -16. -17. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 4. 0. -3. -4. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.5 40.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/02/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/02/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/02/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 50 51 53 54 55 49 45 42 41 42 39 35 31 29 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 48 50 51 52 46 42 39 38 39 36 32 28 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 45 46 47 41 37 34 33 34 31 27 23 21 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 39 40 34 30 27 26 27 24 20 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT