* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/02/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 52 55 56 52 46 41 36 33 30 27 23 21 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 52 55 56 52 46 41 36 33 30 27 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 51 52 54 53 51 49 49 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 14 12 11 9 12 19 30 35 36 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 5 -2 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 299 296 290 283 248 215 200 191 221 239 244 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.7 23.3 23.1 22.8 20.7 20.4 19.9 18.6 17.9 18.8 19.0 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 95 93 92 90 81 79 76 74 73 75 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 80 79 79 72 70 68 67 67 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.3 -55.2 -56.3 -57.2 -59.9 -61.9 -61.7 -61.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 63 63 65 64 58 58 51 42 48 46 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 21 21 21 22 21 18 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 177 181 175 182 171 130 72 30 22 -25 -63 -94 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 32 48 48 30 32 41 80 88 -11 23 42 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 6 3 6 0 -8 -30 -23 -1 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1659 1618 1581 1522 1467 1321 1220 1231 1332 1502 1707 1665 1535 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.8 35.5 36.2 37.1 37.9 40.0 41.9 42.8 43.2 43.4 43.3 43.1 43.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.2 40.8 40.3 40.0 39.8 39.6 39.3 38.5 36.9 34.5 31.8 29.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 7 5 7 9 9 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 25. 23. 19. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -10. -15. -18. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 11. 7. 1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.8 41.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/02/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 11.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 9.1% 3.3% 0.5% 0.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.9% 3.8% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/02/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/02/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 50 51 52 55 56 52 46 41 36 33 30 27 23 21 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 48 49 52 53 49 43 38 33 30 27 24 20 18 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 44 47 48 44 38 33 28 25 22 19 15 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 40 41 37 31 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT