* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 46 49 52 55 56 47 46 45 57 53 25 21 20 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 46 49 52 55 56 47 46 45 57 53 25 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 48 50 51 51 49 49 50 54 52 43 N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 19 17 14 13 10 10 16 24 40 41 31 26 12 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -6 -3 -4 0 -1 -1 0 1 -2 4 8 4 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 312 302 302 287 282 235 212 200 212 230 234 222 230 338 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 24.2 23.9 23.4 23.2 21.7 20.9 20.2 19.1 17.7 18.6 19.1 19.4 20.4 22.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 98 96 93 92 85 81 78 76 73 74 73 75 80 87 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 84 82 81 80 75 72 69 68 67 67 65 67 71 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.3 -54.7 -56.1 -56.8 -57.9 -61.6 -62.8 -62.1 -60.9 -61.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 59 62 63 63 64 57 54 53 42 30 38 44 53 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 16 17 18 31 29 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 162 177 189 178 183 158 97 48 37 23 -89 -172 -94 -35 -123 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 45 37 51 40 23 25 73 100 47 -10 23 54 19 -50 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 1 6 6 2 2 -7 -21 -25 4 -2 -8 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1667 1649 1634 1575 1520 1389 1260 1213 1306 1480 1677 1783 1801 1853 1957 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.8 35.3 36.1 36.9 38.8 40.9 42.3 43.1 43.4 43.3 42.8 42.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.0 41.4 40.8 40.5 40.3 39.9 39.6 39.1 37.3 34.8 32.2 31.0 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 7 9 9 7 4 6 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. -2. -8. -13. -17. -20. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 24. 26. 26. 23. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -12. -11. 5. 2. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 16. 16. 7. 6. 5. 17. 13. -15. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.3 42.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 7.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/02/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/02/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 45 46 49 52 55 56 47 46 45 57 53 25 21 20 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 47 50 53 54 45 44 43 55 51 23 19 18 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 42 45 48 49 40 39 38 50 46 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 37 40 41 32 31 30 42 38 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT