* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 44 48 49 52 54 49 42 36 31 26 23 19 18 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 44 48 49 52 54 49 42 36 31 26 23 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 39 41 44 47 49 51 50 48 46 46 46 48 N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 24 21 18 12 13 9 13 21 31 34 30 29 26 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -7 -7 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 0 3 3 1 -1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 317 313 310 308 288 233 204 185 204 216 236 239 220 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 24.0 24.2 23.9 23.5 22.7 20.8 20.5 19.7 17.5 18.4 18.9 19.0 20.0 21.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 95 97 96 94 90 81 80 77 73 74 72 74 79 85 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 80 83 83 81 79 72 71 69 67 67 64 66 70 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.6 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.6 -56.1 -57.3 -57.8 -60.3 -62.0 -61.7 -60.7 -60.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 58 61 61 65 62 55 53 50 41 44 45 55 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 22 22 21 22 22 19 16 14 12 11 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 157 180 193 185 166 113 55 29 29 0 -84 -62 5 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 30 26 36 43 21 28 48 76 87 -14 32 48 39 37 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 3 1 6 6 -3 -12 -22 -7 0 -4 -26 -16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1663 1657 1653 1620 1590 1432 1287 1225 1224 1392 1637 1759 1706 1765 1929 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 34.4 34.6 35.3 35.9 38.1 40.1 41.7 43.1 43.7 43.7 43.3 42.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.1 41.7 41.1 40.6 40.1 40.0 39.4 38.4 35.8 32.5 31.1 32.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 8 9 11 9 8 8 11 8 3 6 9 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -15. -20. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 22. 24. 24. 20. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -9. -15. -19. -21. -23. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 9. 12. 14. 9. 2. -4. -9. -14. -17. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.1 42.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/01/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/01/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 43 44 48 49 52 54 49 42 36 31 26 23 19 18 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 43 47 48 51 53 48 41 35 30 25 22 18 17 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 43 44 47 49 44 37 31 26 21 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 36 39 41 36 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT