* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 41 44 48 49 52 54 51 45 53 61 54 51 46 45 V (KT) LAND 40 39 40 41 44 48 49 52 54 51 45 53 61 54 51 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 39 40 43 46 48 50 50 50 53 55 53 51 N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 28 25 20 14 11 10 14 17 34 48 38 23 24 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -4 -6 -3 -1 1 -1 -1 0 -2 -10 13 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 318 314 316 305 280 259 226 211 203 218 222 235 242 309 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.0 23.2 21.6 20.9 20.7 20.0 18.9 20.3 21.3 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 94 95 98 97 93 85 81 80 78 74 79 82 82 82 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 80 81 83 83 81 75 71 71 69 67 70 72 71 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.8 -55.5 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.2 -54.8 -55.9 -56.5 -58.6 -61.8 -61.7 -61.2 -60.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 52 56 59 61 62 62 55 54 49 35 36 40 46 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 22 23 23 22 22 22 20 19 26 34 33 33 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 155 164 176 189 170 125 80 57 36 -14 -141 -149 -105 -95 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 45 31 37 38 32 28 34 89 82 -18 -24 32 27 -71 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 4 5 5 7 1 -20 -41 -12 -3 4 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1637 1659 1681 1658 1636 1526 1363 1273 1269 1357 1514 1675 1826 1889 1859 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.1 34.1 34.6 35.1 36.7 38.9 40.4 41.8 42.5 42.5 41.5 39.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.3 42.7 42.1 41.6 41.1 40.5 40.2 39.9 38.7 37.0 34.9 33.4 32.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 7 10 10 7 8 7 7 8 7 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -3. -9. -15. -19. -24. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 20. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -1. 9. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 9. 12. 14. 11. 5. 13. 21. 14. 11. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.0 43.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/01/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/01/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 40 41 44 48 49 52 54 51 45 53 61 54 51 46 45 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 44 48 49 52 54 51 45 53 61 54 51 46 45 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 40 44 45 48 50 47 41 49 57 50 47 42 41 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 37 38 41 43 40 34 42 50 43 40 35 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT