* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 44 45 46 47 46 45 40 31 27 23 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 44 45 46 47 46 45 40 31 27 23 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 43 44 46 48 49 50 48 46 45 45 43 N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 38 31 27 22 11 11 14 17 26 31 31 25 34 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 -1 -5 1 0 -1 -5 -2 0 4 2 -1 -16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 334 322 309 310 289 276 229 215 200 206 222 240 257 331 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.7 24.0 23.5 23.0 21.3 21.0 20.6 19.2 19.0 19.5 19.6 19.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 92 92 93 96 93 91 83 81 80 76 75 76 73 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 79 78 80 81 80 79 73 72 70 68 68 68 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.0 -55.8 -55.2 -54.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -54.7 -56.2 -57.9 -60.7 -62.1 -62.0 -61.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 47 52 56 59 62 63 58 53 49 42 34 42 39 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 22 21 22 21 20 17 12 10 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 169 154 147 156 165 178 146 100 74 40 -2 -44 -110 -150 -105 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 10 33 26 26 22 12 26 42 79 27 -23 13 -58 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 5 0 -13 -21 -23 -6 0 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1520 1566 1612 1610 1610 1533 1426 1299 1239 1258 1370 1532 1726 1813 1810 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.8 34.6 34.3 34.6 34.8 36.0 37.6 39.4 40.9 42.0 42.7 42.6 42.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.2 43.7 43.2 42.7 42.2 41.5 40.9 40.6 39.9 38.7 36.7 34.6 32.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 7 9 9 8 7 8 8 6 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -22. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. 20. 21. 18. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -9. -15. -22. -25. -26. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -5. -14. -18. -22. -30. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.8 44.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/01/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/01/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 44 45 46 47 46 45 40 31 27 23 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 44 45 46 47 46 45 40 31 27 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 43 44 45 44 43 38 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 38 39 38 37 32 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT