* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 43 44 45 46 45 45 42 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 43 44 45 46 45 45 42 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 44 44 47 49 51 52 51 49 45 42 41 N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 37 36 27 25 15 12 10 16 18 29 38 42 37 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -3 1 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 0 -4 1 5 1 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 331 334 319 310 304 280 260 206 198 197 201 233 273 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.0 23.6 23.2 21.3 20.7 19.6 17.7 17.4 17.3 16.7 15.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 90 91 94 95 94 92 84 81 77 73 72 71 70 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 77 78 79 81 81 80 74 72 69 67 66 66 64 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.0 -56.1 -55.8 -55.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -55.5 -57.0 -57.5 -57.8 -60.7 -63.6 -64.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 48 53 57 64 65 65 58 59 58 46 35 44 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 22 22 22 22 23 22 22 21 17 12 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 160 157 147 147 152 171 155 118 70 33 41 46 -41 -134 -80 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -16 3 28 38 24 36 41 44 72 71 35 13 4 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 2 3 3 5 1 -1 -19 -52 -25 30 -15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1429 1479 1529 1552 1576 1558 1466 1331 1215 1212 1310 1469 1666 1553 1407 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 35.5 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.9 37.4 39.4 41.5 43.2 44.4 45.1 45.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.8 43.5 43.3 42.8 42.3 41.2 40.5 40.1 39.7 38.5 36.5 34.0 31.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 4 5 7 9 11 10 9 9 10 8 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -25. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 21. 22. 20. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. -8. -11. -17. -25. -28. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. -0. 0. -3. -11. -23. -30. -35. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.9 43.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/01/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 43 43 44 45 46 45 45 42 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 43 44 45 46 45 45 42 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 41 42 43 42 42 39 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 37 38 37 37 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT