* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 10/31/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 45 47 48 46 48 48 48 43 37 30 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 45 47 48 46 48 48 48 43 37 30 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 47 49 50 51 53 56 57 55 53 51 47 44 41 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 30 32 29 22 9 9 10 13 17 26 33 30 36 51 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -4 0 -7 -1 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 5 5 3 5 22 SHEAR DIR 291 314 333 338 321 314 301 287 234 212 216 231 253 285 302 292 284 SST (C) 22.9 23.0 23.5 23.8 23.9 23.8 23.2 22.5 20.9 20.3 17.8 15.7 15.2 15.0 14.1 12.2 9.0 POT. INT. (KT) 90 90 92 94 95 95 93 89 82 81 75 72 72 72 71 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 77 79 80 80 81 80 77 72 72 69 68 68 68 68 70 70 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -56.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.1 -56.7 -58.4 -58.8 -59.5 -61.7 -63.4 -63.3 -59.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 50 51 55 63 66 69 68 66 66 66 52 44 39 42 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 23 22 21 22 22 21 20 20 21 19 17 15 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 163 157 156 153 158 177 156 124 95 49 21 35 -61 -148 -221 -152 -41 200 MB DIV -6 -30 -13 4 27 24 41 32 47 50 50 83 24 -11 -24 -23 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 0 -8 8 33 15 -2 9 26 LAND (KM) 1396 1452 1510 1557 1605 1637 1577 1449 1334 1263 1282 1501 1309 876 454 284 528 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 36.0 35.4 35.1 34.8 35.2 36.5 38.6 40.3 42.3 44.7 46.6 48.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.2 43.1 42.7 42.3 40.9 39.9 39.2 39.1 38.4 36.7 33.0 27.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 7 9 10 9 12 15 17 20 19 22 30 34 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -20. -26. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -18. -20. -23. -24. -27. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 1. 3. 3. 3. -2. -8. -15. -21. -31. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.5 43.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 10/31/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.11 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 10/31/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 10/31/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 46 45 47 48 46 48 48 48 43 37 30 24 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 45 46 44 46 46 46 41 35 28 22 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 42 43 41 43 43 43 38 32 25 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 36 37 35 37 37 37 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT