* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 10/31/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 51 50 50 50 51 49 49 43 36 23 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 51 50 50 50 51 49 49 43 36 23 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 51 52 52 52 53 54 53 50 47 45 44 43 39 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 22 25 31 30 19 11 11 12 21 27 29 42 46 49 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -8 -7 -3 -4 0 0 0 -1 1 0 -6 1 25 27 SHEAR DIR 279 274 288 311 331 323 318 295 271 216 202 205 215 231 244 262 273 SST (C) 23.1 22.9 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.4 23.4 22.7 21.0 19.9 17.3 15.2 13.0 12.7 12.0 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 92 89 89 92 95 98 99 94 91 83 80 74 73 71 69 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 76 76 78 80 83 84 82 80 74 72 69 69 68 66 63 62 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.0 -55.8 -55.7 -55.8 -55.9 -55.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -55.9 -57.3 -58.0 -58.9 -59.0 -58.4 -61.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.0 -0.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 50 51 56 60 61 64 59 49 55 62 57 56 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 23 22 22 22 22 21 23 20 17 12 10 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 155 163 167 164 162 165 176 171 137 87 34 1 8 11 -14 -38 -114 200 MB DIV 4 22 -2 -27 -7 36 28 45 43 46 50 64 64 29 19 -7 -8 700-850 TADV -14 -3 -1 -3 0 0 0 4 6 0 -1 -1 -11 0 -23 -138 -22 LAND (KM) 1344 1386 1429 1469 1510 1638 1683 1629 1479 1308 1168 1228 1514 1154 705 497 510 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 36.4 36.2 35.8 35.4 34.5 34.6 35.9 38.3 40.8 43.2 45.6 48.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.2 43.7 43.2 43.1 43.1 42.2 41.1 39.9 39.1 39.0 39.1 37.0 32.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 4 4 4 4 5 6 10 13 12 13 17 22 23 19 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -18. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -10. -14. -20. -27. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -7. -12. -16. -23. -25. -29. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 4. -2. -9. -22. -30. -41. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.6 44.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 10/31/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 5.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 10/31/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 10/31/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 51 51 50 50 50 51 49 49 43 36 23 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 47 46 46 46 47 45 45 39 32 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 41 41 41 42 40 40 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 34 34 35 33 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT