* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 10/31/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 53 50 47 46 46 44 42 41 35 29 44 46 37 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 53 50 47 46 46 44 42 41 35 29 44 42 33 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 52 50 48 47 47 48 49 50 49 53 59 45 45 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 23 22 23 24 33 27 14 10 11 16 18 24 32 24 13 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -1 -3 -5 -4 -3 -4 -2 0 2 0 2 2 9 3 3 15 SHEAR DIR 303 292 267 281 299 330 310 294 281 254 222 209 219 232 253 227 235 SST (C) 23.0 23.3 23.9 24.0 23.7 23.0 23.0 22.8 22.2 21.5 20.9 19.5 15.8 13.8 13.5 12.7 4.9 POT. INT. (KT) 94 95 97 95 92 88 87 88 87 84 82 79 75 75 74 73 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 84 84 81 77 74 73 75 76 74 73 72 71 72 72 70 69 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.5 -56.2 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -54.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.6 -55.9 -56.8 -56.5 -56.3 -57.1 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 50 52 55 54 54 60 65 65 63 56 56 61 55 45 42 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 25 25 23 22 23 23 23 22 22 20 19 34 37 31 850 MB ENV VOR 157 152 160 156 164 140 149 172 171 137 94 45 28 34 -45 -158 -64 200 MB DIV 5 18 46 42 -11 -14 35 21 37 28 34 72 91 49 -7 5 -48 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -2 -1 -2 0 2 3 3 6 10 8 18 34 33 9 -3 LAND (KM) 1274 1413 1509 1539 1527 1468 1463 1470 1406 1296 1226 1239 1393 1207 418 7 22 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 35.8 35.5 35.6 35.9 36.2 36.2 36.4 37.5 39.2 41.1 43.1 46.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 44.4 42.9 42.1 41.8 42.4 42.5 42.0 41.4 40.9 39.9 38.2 34.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 9 5 2 2 1 4 8 10 11 15 26 36 35 31 34 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -12. -17. -21. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. 5. 7. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 5. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -16. -1. 1. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.5 46.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 10/31/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.07 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 10/31/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 10/31/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 53 50 47 46 46 44 42 41 35 29 44 42 33 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 50 47 44 43 43 41 39 38 32 26 41 39 30 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 41 38 37 37 35 33 32 26 20 35 33 24 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 33 30 29 29 27 25 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT