* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 18 21 24 25 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 10 5 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 225 202 203 198 216 256 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 130 130 132 135 133 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 125 124 125 126 123 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -55.1 -55.7 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 46 44 41 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 10 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 31 26 2 -9 -41 -53 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 38 49 32 12 -4 -18 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 20 19 12 13 21 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1788 1809 1836 1850 1875 1927 1930 1769 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.5 21.1 22.6 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.9 40.8 41.8 42.7 43.7 45.8 47.7 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 22 14 13 25 21 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 39.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 6.2% 5.0% 4.9% 3.2% 5.7% 4.9% 4.5% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202021 VICTOR 10/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/03/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 21 22 22 22 23 24 25 27 29 32 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 16 17 17 17 18 19 20 22 24 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT