* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 25 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 25 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 17 19 25 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 13 12 6 -2 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 225 221 203 210 210 242 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.4 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 130 129 129 126 129 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 125 123 122 117 118 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -55.0 -55.6 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 47 47 42 42 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 54 38 24 5 -42 -53 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 34 59 56 33 0 -37 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 18 19 20 14 18 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1826 1839 1863 1887 1922 1980 1975 1840 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.7 21.4 22.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.4 40.4 41.4 42.3 43.2 45.3 47.3 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 16 13 12 21 11 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 39.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.08 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202021 VICTOR 10/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/03/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 25 25 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 25 25 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 23 23 21 21 21 22 22 23 24 25 27 29 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 18 16 16 16 17 17 18 19 20 22 24 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT