* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 24 22 21 19 18 18 18 19 21 23 24 26 29 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 24 22 21 19 18 18 18 19 21 23 24 26 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 20 19 19 22 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 9 12 9 3 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 226 232 228 223 207 222 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.2 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 130 132 129 131 127 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 127 128 123 124 118 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.6 -55.3 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 51 51 48 45 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 12 11 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 62 54 38 20 -12 -47 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 35 41 38 35 4 -11 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 13 19 18 20 18 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1809 1783 1770 1797 1822 1894 1968 1919 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.2 16.0 17.1 18.1 20.1 21.8 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.4 39.5 40.6 41.6 42.5 44.4 46.4 48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 25 20 20 12 29 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -18. -20. -21. -23. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -6. -4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 38.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 6.3% 5.1% 5.0% 3.4% 6.2% 4.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202021 VICTOR 10/03/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/03/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 25 24 22 21 19 18 18 18 19 21 23 24 26 29 18HR AGO 30 29 28 26 25 23 22 20 19 19 19 20 22 24 25 27 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 23 21 20 18 17 17 17 18 20 22 23 25 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT