* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 23 21 21 19 18 17 17 18 20 21 24 25 26 29 V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 23 21 21 19 18 17 17 18 20 21 24 25 26 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 15 18 20 18 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 10 11 7 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 218 223 223 227 218 207 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 130 133 129 129 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 129 128 130 122 121 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -54.8 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 53 51 47 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 14 12 11 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 66 60 56 35 11 -35 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 20 39 45 31 19 21 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 12 17 17 20 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1821 1787 1764 1765 1780 1840 1915 1916 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.9 16.9 19.0 20.8 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.5 38.5 39.5 40.6 41.6 43.5 45.4 47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 29 27 20 22 18 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -6. -5. -4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 37.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.2% 6.7% 6.3% 4.7% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 26 24 23 21 21 19 18 17 17 18 20 21 24 25 26 29 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 24 24 22 21 20 20 21 23 24 27 28 29 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 23 23 21 20 19 19 20 22 23 26 27 28 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT