* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/02/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 27 26 25 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 27 26 25 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 26 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 20 22 17 25 27 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 4 7 15 2 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 204 200 211 222 219 214 235 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 132 131 130 129 130 127 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 130 129 128 124 122 118 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.7 -55.3 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 57 55 49 43 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 14 13 12 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 77 71 63 57 32 -22 -48 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 37 26 30 36 60 8 3 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 11 12 13 16 22 12 18 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1772 1826 1802 1783 1779 1839 1934 1993 1911 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 18.3 20.4 22.0 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.7 37.6 38.4 39.5 40.6 42.5 44.2 46.3 48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 27 29 25 20 12 27 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -14. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -16. -18. -21. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. -13. -12. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 36.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.5% 7.4% 7.0% 5.3% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 1.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 28 27 26 25 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 31 30 29 28 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 28 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT